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Kilis Belediyespor vs Kırşehir Belediyespor — League #553 2026

Kilis Belediyespor
Kilis Belediyespor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kırşehir Belediyespor
Kırşehir Belediyespor
10/26/2025League #553League #553 · Group 2 - 8Kilis 7 Aralık Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kilis Belediyespor49%
×Draw26%
Kırşehir Belediyespor24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kilis Belediyespor
1.47
Kırşehir Belediyespor
0.94

Kilis Belediyespor creates 56% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kilis Belediyespor
1.33
Kırşehir Belediyespor
1.20

allows per match

Kilis Belediyespor
0.67
Kırşehir Belediyespor
1.60

finishing

Kilis Belediyespor+0.00on par
Kırşehir Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilis Belediyespor ↓

Kırşehir Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kilis Belediyespor or draw
76%
Kilis Belediyespor or Kırşehir Belediyespor
74%
Draw or Kırşehir Belediyespor
51%

Winning margin

Kilis Belediyespor wins by 2+
25%
Kırşehir Belediyespor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kilis Belediyespor 1+ goals
77%
Kilis Belediyespor 2+ goals
43%
Kilis Belediyespor 3+ goals
18%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 1+ goals
61%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals
24%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kilis Belediyespor (draw refunded)
67%
Kırşehir Belediyespor (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilis Belediyespor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Kırşehir Belediyespor away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilis Belediyespor attack 1.33 + Kırşehir Belediyespor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

Kırşehir Belediyespor attack 1.20 + Kilis Belediyespor defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kilis Belediyespor scores more
49%
level
26%
Kırşehir Belediyespor scores more
24%

Kilis Belediyespor at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kilis Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kilis Belediyespor vs Kırşehir Belediyespor

Kırşehir Belediyespor beat Kilis Belediyespor 2-1 in League #553 on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at Kilis 7 Aralık Stadyumu in Kilis.