Kırşehir Belediyespor 1–1 Kilis Belediyespor

Kırşehir Belediyespor

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kilis Belediyespor

9/28/2022

Türkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundKırşehir Ahi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kırşehir Belediyespor61%

×Draw19%

Kilis Belediyespor20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kırşehir BelediyesporExpected goals in this matchKilis Belediyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.32

Kırşehir Belediyespor

2.42

Kilis Belediyespor

1.32

Kırşehir Belediyespor creates 83% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

2.60

creates per match

1.25

1.40

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Kırşehir Belediyespor

2.60

Kilis Belediyespor

1.25

allows per match

Kırşehir Belediyespor

1.40

Kilis Belediyespor

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kırşehir Belediyespor+0.00on par

Kilis Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kırşehir Belediyespor ↓

Kilis Belediyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Kırşehir Belediyespor or draw

80%

Kırşehir Belediyespor or Kilis Belediyespor

81%

Draw or Kilis Belediyespor

39%

Winning margin

Kırşehir Belediyespor wins by 2+

40%

Kilis Belediyespor wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kırşehir Belediyespor 1+ goals

91%

Kırşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals

69%

Kırşehir Belediyespor 3+ goals

43%

Kilis Belediyespor 1+ goals

73%

Kilis Belediyespor 2+ goals

38%

Kilis Belediyespor 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kırşehir Belediyespor (draw refunded)

76%

Kilis Belediyespor (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kırşehir Belediyespor at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Kilis Belediyespor away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kırşehir Belediyespor attack 2.60 + Kilis Belediyespor defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.42

Kilis Belediyespor attack 1.25 + Kırşehir Belediyespor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kırşehir Belediyespor scores more

61%

level

19%

Kilis Belediyespor scores more

20%

Kırşehir Belediyespor at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kırşehir Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff