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Kiffen vs KäPa — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2026

Kiffen
Kiffen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
KäPa
KäPa
8/31/2022Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 11Töölö PK 1 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kiffen39%
×Draw24%
KäPa37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kiffen
1.52
KäPa
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 22 away

creates per match

Kiffen
1.59
KäPa
1.68

allows per match

Kiffen
1.29
KäPa
1.45

finishing

Kiffen+0.00on par
KäPa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kiffen ↓

KäPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kiffen or draw
63%
Kiffen or KäPa
76%
Draw or KäPa
61%

Winning margin

Kiffen wins by 2+
19%
KäPa wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kiffen 1+ goals
78%
Kiffen 2+ goals
45%
Kiffen 3+ goals
20%
KäPa 1+ goals
77%
KäPa 2+ goals
43%
KäPa 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kiffen (draw refunded)
51%
KäPa (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kiffen at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 58 matches

KäPa away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kiffen attack 1.59 + KäPa defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

KäPa attack 1.68 + Kiffen defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kiffen scores more
39%
level
24%
KäPa scores more
37%

Kiffen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kiffen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kiffen 2 – 1 KäPa

Kiffen beat KäPa 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on August 31, 2022.

The match was played at Töölö PK 1 Tekonurmi in Helsinki.