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KäPa vs Kiffen — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2026

KäPa
KäPa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kiffen
Kiffen
5/30/2022Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 4Kumpulanlaakson tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

KäPa54%
×Draw21%
Kiffen26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KäPa
2.15
Kiffen
1.44

KäPa creates 49% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 60 away

creates per match

KäPa
2.64
Kiffen
1.38

allows per match

KäPa
1.50
Kiffen
1.65

finishing

KäPa+0.00on par
Kiffen+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KäPa ↓

Kiffen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

KäPa or draw
74%
KäPa or Kiffen
79%
Draw or Kiffen
46%

Winning margin

KäPa wins by 2+
32%
Kiffen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

KäPa 1+ goals
88%
KäPa 2+ goals
63%
KäPa 3+ goals
36%
Kiffen 1+ goals
76%
Kiffen 2+ goals
42%
Kiffen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

KäPa (draw refunded)
68%
Kiffen (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KäPa at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

Kiffen away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.65 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KäPa attack 2.64 + Kiffen defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.15

Kiffen attack 1.38 + KäPa defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

KäPa scores more
54%
level
21%
Kiffen scores more
26%

KäPa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "KäPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: KäPa 3–1 Kiffen

KäPa beat Kiffen 3-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on May 30, 2022.

The match was played at Kumpulanlaakson tekonurmi in Helsinki.