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Kiffen vs HJS Akatemia — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2026

Kiffen
Kiffen
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
HJS Akatemia
HJS Akatemia
7/28/2018Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 13Töölön Pallokenttä (Helsinki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Kiffen41%
×Draw25%
HJS Akatemia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kiffen
1.52
HJS Akatemia
1.38

Kiffen creates 10% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 80 away

creates per match

Kiffen
1.30
HJS Akatemia
1.45

allows per match

Kiffen
1.30
HJS Akatemia
1.75

finishing

Kiffen+0.00on par
HJS Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kiffen ↓

HJS Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kiffen or draw
65%
Kiffen or HJS Akatemia
75%
Draw or HJS Akatemia
59%

Winning margin

Kiffen wins by 2+
20%
HJS Akatemia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kiffen 1+ goals
78%
Kiffen 2+ goals
45%
Kiffen 3+ goals
20%
HJS Akatemia 1+ goals
75%
HJS Akatemia 2+ goals
40%
HJS Akatemia 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kiffen (draw refunded)
54%
HJS Akatemia (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kiffen at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

HJS Akatemia away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kiffen attack 1.30 + HJS Akatemia defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.52

HJS Akatemia attack 1.45 + Kiffen defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kiffen scores more
41%
level
25%
HJS Akatemia scores more
35%

Kiffen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kiffen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kiffen vs HJS Akatemia

Kiffen and HJS Akatemia drew 0-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on July 28, 2018.

The match was played at Töölön Pallokenttä (Helsinki).