HJS Akatemia 2–0 Kiffen: Result & Stats

HJS Akatemia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Kiffen

5/25/2022

Suomen Cup · 5th RoundPulleri tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

HJS Akatemia17%

×Draw25%

Kiffen58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HJS AkatemiaExpected goals in this matchKiffen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

1.63

HJS Akatemia

0.75

Kiffen

1.63

Kiffen creates 117% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

0.75

creates per match

2.50

0.75

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

HJS Akatemia

0.75

Kiffen

2.50

allows per match

HJS Akatemia

0.75

Kiffen

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HJS Akatemia+0.00on par

Kiffen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HJS Akatemia ↓

Kiffen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–115%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

HJS Akatemia or draw

42%

HJS Akatemia or Kiffen

75%

Draw or Kiffen

83%

Winning margin

HJS Akatemia wins by 2+

5%

Kiffen wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

HJS Akatemia 1+ goals

53%

HJS Akatemia 2+ goals

17%

HJS Akatemia 3+ goals

4%

Kiffen 1+ goals

80%

Kiffen 2+ goals

48%

Kiffen 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

HJS Akatemia (draw refunded)

23%

Kiffen (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HJS Akatemia at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Kiffen away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HJS Akatemia attack 0.75 + Kiffen defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.75

Kiffen attack 2.50 + HJS Akatemia defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

HJS Akatemia scores more

17%

level

25%

Kiffen scores more

58%

Kiffen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kiffen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff