KIF Örebro W 0–5 Eskilstuna United W

KIF Örebro W

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Eskilstuna United W

E. Bulow 90'

G. Rennie 62'

W. Ohman 36'

F. Rogic 19', 8'

11/1/2025

Elitettan · Round 24Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

KIF Örebro W47%

×Draw22%

Eskilstuna United W32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KIF Örebro WExpected goals in this matchEskilstuna United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.63

KIF Örebro W

2.02

Eskilstuna United W

1.63

KIF Örebro W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 39 away

2.28

creates per match

1.82

1.44

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

KIF Örebro W

2.28

Eskilstuna United W

1.82

allows per match

KIF Örebro W

1.44

Eskilstuna United W

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KIF Örebro W+0.00on par

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KIF Örebro W ↓

Eskilstuna United W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

KIF Örebro W or draw

68%

KIF Örebro W or Eskilstuna United W

78%

Draw or Eskilstuna United W

53%

Winning margin

KIF Örebro W wins by 2+

27%

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

KIF Örebro W 1+ goals

87%

KIF Örebro W 2+ goals

60%

KIF Örebro W 3+ goals

33%

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals

80%

Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals

48%

Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

KIF Örebro W (draw refunded)

60%

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KIF Örebro W at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

Eskilstuna United W away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.77 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KIF Örebro W attack 2.28 + Eskilstuna United W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.02

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.82 + KIF Örebro W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

KIF Örebro W scores more

47%

level

22%

Eskilstuna United W scores more

32%

KIF Örebro W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "KIF Örebro W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

19'

36'

62'

67'

72'

72'

L. Andersson← C. Rubensson

72'

S. Dahlman← S. Parkner

73'

I. Sarjanoja← G. Rennie

79'

S. Lambertsson← J. Walentowicz

83'

S. Niklasson← E. Rappole

83'

E. Tillenius← V. Ollonqvist

85'

E. Bulow← A. Sutter

85'

F. Eriksson← F. Rogic

90'

E. Bulow

KIF

Eskilstuna

35

Wilhelm

7

⚽

▼

Rennie

8

⚽

Ohman

9

⚽2

▼

Rogic

11

▼

14

16

17

19

▼

Sutter

25

▼

27

12

2

3

▼

Parkner

4

Alm

5

▼

Walentowi

9

▼

Rubensson

10

Frost

11

▼

13

14

18

Manager: F. Andersson

72'▲V. Hellman←▼G. Lynch

72'▲L. Andersson←▼C. Rubensson

72'▲S. Dahlman←▼S. Parkner

79'▲S. Lambertsson←▼J. Walentowicz

KIF Örebro W substitutes

22Danielsson6Dahlkvist8Hellman16Nordin19Andersson20Dahlman48Lambertsson

Manager: R. Johansson

73'▲I. Sarjanoja←▼G. Rennie

83'▲S. Niklasson←▼E. Rappole

83'▲E. Tillenius←▼V. Ollonqvist

85'▲E. Bulow←▼A. Sutter

85'▲F. Eriksson←▼F. Rogic

Eskilstuna United W substitutes

30Borg4Niklasson10Sarjanoja13Tillenius15Bulow21Veber23Eriksson

Match Recap: KIF Örebro W vs Eskilstuna United W

Eskilstuna United W beat KIF Örebro W 5-0 in Elitettan on November 1, 2025.

Goals: F. Rogic (8', 19'), W. Ohman (36'), G. Rennie (62'), E. Bulow (90').

The match was played at Behrn Arena in Örebro.

KIF Örebro W vs Eskilstuna United W — Elitettan 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: KIF Örebro W vs Eskilstuna United W