Eskilstuna United W 1–2 KIF Örebro W

Eskilstuna United W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

KIF Örebro W

P. Nyström 33'

A. Rantanen 90+5'

S. Kullberg 39'

10/17/2021

Damallsvenskan · Round 20Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Eskilstuna United W52%

×Draw25%

KIF Örebro W23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eskilstuna United WExpected goals in this matchKIF Örebro W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.01

Eskilstuna United W

1.64

KIF Örebro W

1.01

Eskilstuna United W creates 62% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 62 away

1.39

creates per match

0.90

1.12

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Eskilstuna United W

1.39

KIF Örebro W

0.90

allows per match

Eskilstuna United W

1.12

KIF Örebro W

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par

KIF Örebro W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskilstuna United W ↓

KIF Örebro W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Eskilstuna United W or draw

77%

Eskilstuna United W or KIF Örebro W

75%

Draw or KIF Örebro W

48%

Winning margin

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+

28%

KIF Örebro W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals

81%

Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals

49%

Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals

23%

KIF Örebro W 1+ goals

64%

KIF Örebro W 2+ goals

27%

KIF Örebro W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)

69%

KIF Örebro W (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskilstuna United W at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

KIF Örebro W away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.89 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.39 + KIF Örebro W defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.64

KIF Örebro W attack 0.90 + Eskilstuna United W defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Eskilstuna United W scores more

52%

level

25%

KIF Örebro W scores more

23%

Eskilstuna United W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Eskilstuna United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

P. Nyström

39'

S. Kullberg

65'

M. Plan

69'

J. Scarpa← E. Pelgander

73'

L. Vickius← A. Oskarsson

77'

S. Lilja-Vidlund← H. Kollanen

77'

A. Rantanen← W. Öhman

83'

E. Pikkujamsa

88'

E. Engström← F. Saving

89'

J. Scarpa

90+5'

A. Rantanen

Eskilstuna

KIF

1

Enblom

3

⚽

21

2

8

22

▼

Öhman

14

Wickenhei

19

▼

Pelgander

16

Sandberg

10

▼

Kollanen

23

Hellstrom

1

Lundberg

20

▼

29

5

4

25

14

7

13

▼

Saving

9

Jalkerud

10

⚽

Nyström

Manager: F. Bernhardsson

73'▲L. Vickius←▼A. Oskarsson

88'▲E. Engström←▼F. Saving

Eskilstuna United W substitutes

8Vickius11Engström15Barsley19Renmark23Eriksson94Paulsson-Febo22Karlsson

Manager: R. Johansson

69'▲J. Scarpa←▼E. Pelgander

77'▲S. Lilja-Vidlund←▼H. Kollanen

77'▲A. Rantanen←▼W. Öhman

KIF Örebro W substitutes

12Scarpa9Lilja-Vidlund15Rantanen4Abrahamsson6Nygren7Redenstrand25Rúnarsdóttir