Kickers Offenbach U19 5–1 Karlsruher SC U19

Kickers Offenbach U19

FT

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Karlsruher SC U19

J. Blockus 55', 45+1', 26'

A. Mesanovic 33'

Kim Dong-woo 15'

S. Marino 54' (pen)

11/20/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 10Kunstrasenplatz 2 OF SANA Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Kickers Offenbach U1931%

×Draw21%

Karlsruher SC U1947%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kickers Offenbach U19Expected goals in this matchKarlsruher SC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

2.09

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.68

Karlsruher SC U19

2.09

Karlsruher SC U19 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 74 away

1.77

creates per match

1.73

2.46

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.77

Karlsruher SC U19

1.73

allows per match

Kickers Offenbach U19

2.46

Karlsruher SC U19

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kickers Offenbach U19+0.00on par

Karlsruher SC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kickers Offenbach U19 ↓

Karlsruher SC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Kickers Offenbach U19 or draw

53%

Kickers Offenbach U19 or Karlsruher SC U19

79%

Draw or Karlsruher SC U19

69%

Winning margin

Kickers Offenbach U19 wins by 2+

15%

Karlsruher SC U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Kickers Offenbach U19 1+ goals

81%

Kickers Offenbach U19 2+ goals

50%

Kickers Offenbach U19 3+ goals

24%

Karlsruher SC U19 1+ goals

88%

Karlsruher SC U19 2+ goals

62%

Karlsruher SC U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Kickers Offenbach U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Karlsruher SC U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kickers Offenbach U19 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 2.46 · 48 matches

Karlsruher SC U19 away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kickers Offenbach U19 attack 1.77 + Karlsruher SC U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.68

Karlsruher SC U19 attack 1.73 + Kickers Offenbach U19 defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kickers Offenbach U19 scores more

31%

level

21%

Karlsruher SC U19 scores more

47%

Karlsruher SC U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Karlsruher SC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

26'

33'

45+1'

46'

B. Fietkau← R. Kalici

46'

E. Öztürk← K. Bungic

54'

S. MarinoPenalty

55'

S. Süsin← Kim Dong-woo

55'

J. Blockus

65'

J. Schleich← L. Knapp

65'

T. Freeman← N. Theisinger

72'

R. Mrvelj← J. Blockus

75'

N. Acun← U. Nassery

87'

D. Starodid← B. von Hagen

Kickers

Karlsruher

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Dong-woo

⚽

Mesanovic

⚽3

▼

Blockus

Mahmuti

▼

Hagen

Manager: R. Trabert

55'▲S. Süsin←▼Kim Dong-woo

72'▲R. Mrvelj←▼J. Blockus

75'▲N. Acun←▼U. Nassery

87'▲D. Starodid←▼B. von Hagen

Kickers Offenbach U19 substitutes

SüsinMrveljAcunStarodidWeiperIraqiArapi

Manager: R. Kettemann

46'▲B. Fietkau←▼R. Kalici

46'▲E. Öztürk←▼K. Bungic

65'▲J. Schleich←▼L. Knapp

65'▲T. Freeman←▼N. Theisinger

Karlsruher SC U19 substitutes

FietkauÖztürkSchleichFreemanEkizFelsenElabed

U19 Bundesliga: Kickers Offenbach U19 5–1 Karlsruher SC U19

Kickers Offenbach U19 beat Karlsruher SC U19 5-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 20, 2021.

Goals: Kim Dong-woo (15'), J. Blockus (26', 45+1', 55'), A. Mesanovic (33'), S. Marino (54' pen).

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz 2 OF SANA Sportpark in Offenbach am Main.

Kickers Offenbach U19 vs Karlsruher SC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Kickers Offenbach U19 5–1 Karlsruher SC U19