Karlsruher SC U19 8–0 Kickers Offenbach U19

Karlsruher SC U19

FT

8 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kickers Offenbach U19

S. Guggenbühler 88'

T. Schunck 80', 47'

K. Cirpan 61', 46'

L. Ben Farhat 58', 56' (pen), 43'

8/10/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 2Platz 2 Wildparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Karlsruher SC U1967%

×Draw17%

Kickers Offenbach U1915%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karlsruher SC U19Expected goals in this matchKickers Offenbach U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.16

Karlsruher SC U19

2.58

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.16

Karlsruher SC U19 creates 122% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 47 away

2.10

creates per match

0.98

1.33

allows per match

3.06

creates per match

Karlsruher SC U19

2.10

Kickers Offenbach U19

0.98

allows per match

Karlsruher SC U19

1.33

Kickers Offenbach U19

3.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlsruher SC U19+0.00on par

Kickers Offenbach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlsruher SC U19 ↓

Kickers Offenbach U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Karlsruher SC U19 or draw

85%

Karlsruher SC U19 or Kickers Offenbach U19

83%

Draw or Kickers Offenbach U19

33%

Winning margin

Karlsruher SC U19 wins by 2+

46%

Kickers Offenbach U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Karlsruher SC U19 1+ goals

92%

Karlsruher SC U19 2+ goals

72%

Karlsruher SC U19 3+ goals

47%

Kickers Offenbach U19 1+ goals

69%

Kickers Offenbach U19 2+ goals

32%

Kickers Offenbach U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Karlsruher SC U19 (draw refunded)

81%

Kickers Offenbach U19 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlsruher SC U19 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.33 · 73 matches

Kickers Offenbach U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 3.06 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlsruher SC U19 attack 2.10 + Kickers Offenbach U19 defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.58

Kickers Offenbach U19 attack 0.98 + Karlsruher SC U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Karlsruher SC U19 scores more

67%

level

17%

Kickers Offenbach U19 scores more

15%

Karlsruher SC U19 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Karlsruher SC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

L. Ben Farhat

46'

N. Tatomirovic← J. Weiß

46'

R. Di Salvo← E. Delikaya

46'

K. Cirpan

47'

T. Schunck

56'

L. Ben FarhatPenalty

58'

L. Ben Farhat

61'

K. Cirpan

62'

B. El-Dor← K. Cirpan

62'

D. Zor← N. Behr

62'

M. Şen← M. Kritzer

62'

R. Zablotzky← R. Mben Bata

62'

S. Bouzarzar← A. Pistritto

62'

S. Reiter← M. Afşar

62'

T. Karacaga← M. Dahl

67'

H. Uhumwangho← C. Bah

69'

L. Rega← F. Lutolli

69'

S. Guggenbühler← L. Ben Farhat

69'

Y. Müller← L. Parduzi

80'

T. Schunck

88'

S. Guggenbühler

Karlsruher

Kickers

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Cirpan

▼

Kritzer

⚽3

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: R. Kettemann

62'▲B. El-Dor←▼K. Cirpan

62'▲D. Zor←▼N. Behr

62'▲M. Şen←▼M. Kritzer

69'▲L. Rega←▼F. Lutolli

69'▲S. Guggenbühler←▼L. Ben Farhat

69'▲Y. Müller←▼L. Parduzi

Karlsruher SC U19 substitutes

El-DorZorŞenRegaGuggenbühlerMüllerRetter

Manager: S. Stuppia

46'▲N. Tatomirovic←▼J. Weiß

46'▲R. Di Salvo←▼E. Delikaya

62'▲R. Zablotzky←▼R. Mben Bata

62'▲S. Bouzarzar←▼A. Pistritto

62'▲S. Reiter←▼M. Afşar

62'▲T. Karacaga←▼M. Dahl

67'▲H. Uhumwangho←▼C. Bah

Kickers Offenbach U19 substitutes

TatomirovicSalvoZablotzkyBouzarzarReiterKaracagaUhumwangho