Kickers Offenbach U19 3–0 Kaiserslautern U19

Kickers Offenbach U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kaiserslautern U19

L. Dahl 85', 75'

N. Meyer 45'

2/29/2020

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 19SANA Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Kickers Offenbach U1939%

×Draw21%

Kaiserslautern U1940%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kickers Offenbach U19Expected goals in this matchKaiserslautern U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

2.04

Kickers Offenbach U19

2.01

Kaiserslautern U19

2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 68 away

1.77

creates per match

1.62

2.46

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.77

Kaiserslautern U19

1.62

allows per match

Kickers Offenbach U19

2.46

Kaiserslautern U19

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kickers Offenbach U19+0.00on par

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kickers Offenbach U19 ↓

Kaiserslautern U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Kickers Offenbach U19 or draw

60%

Kickers Offenbach U19 or Kaiserslautern U19

79%

Draw or Kaiserslautern U19

61%

Winning margin

Kickers Offenbach U19 wins by 2+

21%

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Kickers Offenbach U19 1+ goals

87%

Kickers Offenbach U19 2+ goals

59%

Kickers Offenbach U19 3+ goals

32%

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

87%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

60%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Kickers Offenbach U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kickers Offenbach U19 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 2.46 · 48 matches

Kaiserslautern U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kickers Offenbach U19 attack 1.77 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.01

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.62 + Kickers Offenbach U19 defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kickers Offenbach U19 scores more

39%

level

21%

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

40%

Kaiserslautern U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kaiserslautern U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

M. Bell← T. Thang

45'

N. Meyer

46'

L. Dahl← S. Puth

56'

E. Kuhinja← N. Meyer

69'

A. Chahloul← K. Dogan

71'

M. Mansfeld← A. Brahaj

75'

L. Dahl

79'

J. Corona← P. Bonianga

85'

L. Dahl

89'

M. Boras← F. Oestreicher

Kickers

Kaiserslautern

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Meyer

Sausen

Manager: R. Trabert

27'▲M. Bell←▼T. Thang

46'▲L. Dahl←▼S. Puth

56'▲E. Kuhinja←▼N. Meyer

89'▲M. Boras←▼F. Oestreicher

Kickers Offenbach U19 substitutes

BellDahlKuhinjaBorasSentürkEmbayeKerber

Manager: M. Laping

69'▲A. Chahloul←▼K. Dogan

71'▲M. Mansfeld←▼A. Brahaj

79'▲J. Corona←▼P. Bonianga

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

ChahloulMansfeldCoronaGrenzDialloSaftigHochradner

Match Recap: Kickers Offenbach U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19

Kickers Offenbach U19 beat Kaiserslautern U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 29, 2020.

Goals: N. Meyer (45'), L. Dahl (75', 85').

The match was played at SANA Sportpark in Offenbach.

Kickers Offenbach U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kickers Offenbach U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19