Kickers Offenbach U19 0–2 Freiburg U19

Kickers Offenbach U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Freiburg U19

M. Baur 39'

M. Rosenfelder 16'

4/9/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 19SANA-Sportpark Rasenplatz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Kickers Offenbach U1932%

×Draw21%

Freiburg U1947%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kickers Offenbach U19Expected goals in this matchFreiburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

2.11

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.73

Freiburg U19

2.11

Freiburg U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 67 away

1.77

creates per match

1.76

2.46

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.77

Freiburg U19

1.76

allows per match

Kickers Offenbach U19

2.46

Freiburg U19

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kickers Offenbach U19+0.00on par

Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kickers Offenbach U19 ↓

Freiburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Kickers Offenbach U19 or draw

53%

Kickers Offenbach U19 or Freiburg U19

79%

Draw or Freiburg U19

68%

Winning margin

Kickers Offenbach U19 wins by 2+

16%

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Kickers Offenbach U19 1+ goals

82%

Kickers Offenbach U19 2+ goals

52%

Kickers Offenbach U19 3+ goals

25%

Freiburg U19 1+ goals

88%

Freiburg U19 2+ goals

62%

Freiburg U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Kickers Offenbach U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kickers Offenbach U19 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 2.46 · 48 matches

Freiburg U19 away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kickers Offenbach U19 attack 1.77 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.73

Freiburg U19 attack 1.76 + Kickers Offenbach U19 defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kickers Offenbach U19 scores more

32%

level

21%

Freiburg U19 scores more

47%

Freiburg U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Freiburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

M. Rosenfelder

39'

M. Baur

46'

K. Iraqi← D. Starodid

46'

Kim Dong-woo← A. Mesanovic

46'

N. Acun← V. Reppel

46'

R. Mrvelj← B. von Hagen

63'

M. Hülsenbusch← M. Rosenfelder

79'

A. Moutassime← G. Pellegrino

79'

Y. Sturm← D. Au Yeong

86'

A. Jogerst← Lee Ji-han

Kickers

Freiburg

Sauter

Mertz

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Trabert

46'▲K. Iraqi←▼D. Starodid

46'▲Kim Dong-woo←▼A. Mesanovic

46'▲N. Acun←▼V. Reppel

46'▲R. Mrvelj←▼B. von Hagen

Kickers Offenbach U19 substitutes

IraqiDong-wooAcunMrveljFurnariAimeneNassery

Manager: F. Valente

63'▲M. Hülsenbusch←▼M. Rosenfelder

79'▲A. Moutassime←▼G. Pellegrino

79'▲Y. Sturm←▼D. Au Yeong

86'▲A. Jogerst←▼Lee Ji-han

Freiburg U19 substitutes

HülsenbuschMoutassimeSturmJogerstBleiseBrüningBirk

Match Recap: Kickers Offenbach U19 vs Freiburg U19

Freiburg U19 beat Kickers Offenbach U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 9, 2022.

Goals: M. Rosenfelder (16'), M. Baur (39').

The match was played at SANA-Sportpark Rasenplatz 3 in Offenbach am Main.

Kickers Offenbach U19 vs Freiburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kickers Offenbach U19 vs Freiburg U19