Freiburg U19 4–0 Kickers Offenbach U19

Freiburg U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Kickers Offenbach U19

D. Au Yeong 90+1'

A. Bazdrigiannis 57', 19'

S. Ilić 2'

9/19/2020

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 1Möslestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Freiburg U1967%

×Draw17%

Kickers Offenbach U1916%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Freiburg U19Expected goals in this matchKickers Offenbach U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

1.29

Freiburg U19

2.75

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.29

Freiburg U19 creates 113% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 47 away

2.44

creates per match

0.98

1.59

allows per match

3.06

creates per match

Freiburg U19

2.44

Kickers Offenbach U19

0.98

allows per match

Freiburg U19

1.59

Kickers Offenbach U19

3.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Kickers Offenbach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburg U19 ↓

Kickers Offenbach U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Freiburg U19 or draw

84%

Freiburg U19 or Kickers Offenbach U19

83%

Draw or Kickers Offenbach U19

33%

Winning margin

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+

47%

Kickers Offenbach U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Freiburg U19 1+ goals

93%

Freiburg U19 2+ goals

75%

Freiburg U19 3+ goals

51%

Kickers Offenbach U19 1+ goals

72%

Kickers Offenbach U19 2+ goals

37%

Kickers Offenbach U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)

81%

Kickers Offenbach U19 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburg U19 at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Kickers Offenbach U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 3.06 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburg U19 attack 2.44 + Kickers Offenbach U19 defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.75

Kickers Offenbach U19 attack 0.98 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Freiburg U19 scores more

67%

level

17%

Kickers Offenbach U19 scores more

16%

Freiburg U19 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Freiburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

S. Ilić

19'

A. Bazdrigiannis

20'

M. Hülsenbusch← S. Ilić

26'

A. Alvarez← V. Giesel

40'

N. Meyer← Kim Dongwoo

57'

A. Bazdrigiannis

65'

Kim Tae-Ho← G. Lagonidis

67'

D. Au Yeong← A. Bazdrigiannis

71'

M. Sentürk← F. Yumurtaoğlu

78'

F. Allgaier← M. Dietz

90+1'

D. Au Yeong

Freiburg

Kickers

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Bazdrigia

Kehrer

Manager: T. Stamm

20'▲M. Hülsenbusch←▼S. Ilić

67'▲D. Au Yeong←▼A. Bazdrigiannis

78'▲F. Allgaier←▼M. Dietz

Freiburg U19 substitutes

HülsenbuschYeongAllgaierIbrahimMackBleiseMertz

Manager: R. Trabert

26'▲A. Alvarez←▼V. Giesel

40'▲N. Meyer←▼Kim Dongwoo

65'▲Kim Tae-Ho←▼G. Lagonidis

71'▲M. Sentürk←▼F. Yumurtaoğlu

Kickers Offenbach U19 substitutes

AlvarezMeyerTae-HoSentürkAmadouAimeneReinhard

U19 Bundesliga: Freiburg U19 4–0 Kickers Offenbach U19

Freiburg U19 beat Kickers Offenbach U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on September 19, 2020.

Goals: S. Ilić (2'), A. Bazdrigiannis (19', 57'), D. Au Yeong (90+1').

The match was played at Möslestadion in Freiburg im Breisgau.

Freiburg U19 vs Kickers Offenbach U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Freiburg U19 4–0 Kickers Offenbach U19