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Kibera Black Stars vs Kangemi All Stars — Super League 2018

Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
FT
2 – 1
Kangemi All Stars
Kangemi All Stars
10/3/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kibera Black Stars53%
×Draw26%
Kangemi All Stars21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kibera Black Stars
1.53
Kangemi All Stars
0.87

Kibera Black Stars creates 76% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 18 away

creates per match

Kibera Black Stars
1.34
Kangemi All Stars
1.00

allows per match

Kibera Black Stars
0.74
Kangemi All Stars
1.72

finishing

Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par
Kangemi All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kibera Black Stars ↓

Kangemi All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kibera Black Stars or draw
79%
Kibera Black Stars or Kangemi All Stars
74%
Draw or Kangemi All Stars
47%

Winning margin

Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
27%
Kangemi All Stars wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
78%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
45%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
20%
Kangemi All Stars 1+ goals
58%
Kangemi All Stars 2+ goals
22%
Kangemi All Stars 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
71%
Kangemi All Stars (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kibera Black Stars at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.74 · 105 matches

Kangemi All Stars away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kibera Black Stars attack 1.34 + Kangemi All Stars defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.53

Kangemi All Stars attack 1.00 + Kibera Black Stars defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kibera Black Stars scores more
53%
level
26%
Kangemi All Stars scores more
21%

Kibera Black Stars at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kibera Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kibera Black Stars vs Kangemi All Stars

Kibera Black Stars beat Kangemi All Stars 2-1 in Super League on October 3, 2018.