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Kangemi All Stars vs Kibera Black Stars — Super League 2018

Kangemi All Stars
Kangemi All Stars
FT
1 – 2
Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
5/13/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kangemi All Stars43%
×Draw28%
Kibera Black Stars28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kangemi All Stars
1.28
Kibera Black Stars
0.98

Kangemi All Stars creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 109 away

creates per match

Kangemi All Stars
1.25
Kibera Black Stars
0.96

allows per match

Kangemi All Stars
1.00
Kibera Black Stars
1.31

finishing

Kangemi All Stars+0.00on par
Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kangemi All Stars ↓

Kibera Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kangemi All Stars or draw
72%
Kangemi All Stars or Kibera Black Stars
72%
Draw or Kibera Black Stars
57%

Winning margin

Kangemi All Stars wins by 2+
20%
Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kangemi All Stars 1+ goals
72%
Kangemi All Stars 2+ goals
37%
Kangemi All Stars 3+ goals
14%
Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
62%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
26%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kangemi All Stars (draw refunded)
60%
Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kangemi All Stars at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Kibera Black Stars away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kangemi All Stars attack 1.25 + Kibera Black Stars defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.28

Kibera Black Stars attack 0.96 + Kangemi All Stars defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kangemi All Stars scores more
43%
level
28%
Kibera Black Stars scores more
28%

Kangemi All Stars at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kangemi All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kangemi All Stars 1–2 Kibera Black Stars

Kibera Black Stars beat Kangemi All Stars 2-1 in Super League on May 13, 2018.