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Kibera Black Stars vs Kajiado — Super League 2018

Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Kajiado
Kajiado
7/8/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 38Ligi Ndogo Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kibera Black Stars63%
×Draw22%
Kajiado16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kibera Black Stars
1.92
Kajiado
0.84

Kibera Black Stars creates 129% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 35 away

creates per match

Kibera Black Stars
1.33
Kajiado
0.94

allows per match

Kibera Black Stars
0.75
Kajiado
2.51

finishing

Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par
Kajiado+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kibera Black Stars ↓

Kajiado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kibera Black Stars or draw
84%
Kibera Black Stars or Kajiado
78%
Draw or Kajiado
37%

Winning margin

Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
38%
Kajiado wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
85%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
57%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
30%
Kajiado 1+ goals
57%
Kajiado 2+ goals
21%
Kajiado 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
80%
Kajiado (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kibera Black Stars at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.75 · 106 matches

Kajiado away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.51 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kibera Black Stars attack 1.33 + Kajiado defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 1.92

Kajiado attack 0.94 + Kibera Black Stars defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kibera Black Stars scores more
63%
level
22%
Kajiado scores more
16%

Kibera Black Stars at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kibera Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kibera Black Stars vs Kajiado

Kibera Black Stars beat Kajiado 3-2 in Super League on July 8, 2023.

The match was played at Ligi Ndogo Grounds in Nairobi.