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Kajiado vs Kibera Black Stars — Super League 2018

Kajiado
Kajiado
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
3/26/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19Ildamat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kajiado42%
×Draw26%
Kibera Black Stars32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kajiado
1.40
Kibera Black Stars
1.19

Kajiado creates 18% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 110 away

creates per match

Kajiado
1.49
Kibera Black Stars
0.95

allows per match

Kajiado
1.43
Kibera Black Stars
1.31

finishing

Kajiado+0.00on par
Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kajiado ↓

Kibera Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kajiado or draw
68%
Kajiado or Kibera Black Stars
74%
Draw or Kibera Black Stars
58%

Winning margin

Kajiado wins by 2+
20%
Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kajiado 1+ goals
75%
Kajiado 2+ goals
41%
Kajiado 3+ goals
17%
Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
70%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
33%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kajiado (draw refunded)
57%
Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kajiado at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Kibera Black Stars away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kajiado attack 1.49 + Kibera Black Stars defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Kibera Black Stars attack 0.95 + Kajiado defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kajiado scores more
42%
level
26%
Kibera Black Stars scores more
32%

Kajiado at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kajiado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kajiado 1–0 Kibera Black Stars

Kajiado beat Kibera Black Stars 1-0 in Super League on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Ildamat Stadium in Kajiado.