Kibera Black Stars 3–1 Dandora Love: Result & Stats

Kibera Black Stars

FT

3 – 1

Dandora Love

6/11/2022

Super League · Round 30Camp Toyoyo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kibera Black Stars61%

×Draw22%

Dandora Love17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kibera Black StarsExpected goals in this matchDandora Love

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.88

Kibera Black Stars

1.90

Dandora Love

0.88

Kibera Black Stars creates 116% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 15 away

1.33

creates per match

1.00

0.75

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Kibera Black Stars

1.33

Dandora Love

1.00

allows per match

Kibera Black Stars

0.75

Dandora Love

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Dandora Love+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kibera Black Stars ↓

Dandora Love →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kibera Black Stars or draw

83%

Kibera Black Stars or Dandora Love

78%

Draw or Dandora Love

39%

Winning margin

Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+

36%

Dandora Love wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals

85%

Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals

56%

Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals

29%

Dandora Love 1+ goals

59%

Dandora Love 2+ goals

22%

Dandora Love 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)

78%

Dandora Love (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kibera Black Stars at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.75 · 106 matches

Dandora Love away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kibera Black Stars attack 1.33 + Dandora Love defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.90

Dandora Love attack 1.00 + Kibera Black Stars defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kibera Black Stars scores more

61%

level

22%

Dandora Love scores more

17%

Kibera Black Stars at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kibera Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff