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Dandora Love vs Kibera Black Stars — Super League 2018

Dandora Love
Dandora Love
FT
2 – 5
Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
3/6/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Camp Toyoyo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dandora Love33%
×Draw24%
Kibera Black Stars43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandora Love
1.44
Kibera Black Stars
1.67

Kibera Black Stars creates 16% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 110 away

creates per match

Dandora Love
1.56
Kibera Black Stars
0.95

allows per match

Dandora Love
2.38
Kibera Black Stars
1.31

finishing

Dandora Love+0.00on par
Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandora Love ↓

Kibera Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dandora Love or draw
57%
Dandora Love or Kibera Black Stars
76%
Draw or Kibera Black Stars
67%

Winning margin

Dandora Love wins by 2+
15%
Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Dandora Love 1+ goals
76%
Dandora Love 2+ goals
42%
Dandora Love 3+ goals
18%
Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
81%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
50%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Dandora Love (draw refunded)
44%
Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandora Love at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.38 · 16 matches

Kibera Black Stars away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandora Love attack 1.56 + Kibera Black Stars defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kibera Black Stars attack 0.95 + Dandora Love defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dandora Love scores more
33%
level
24%
Kibera Black Stars scores more
43%

Kibera Black Stars at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kibera Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dandora Love vs Kibera Black Stars

Kibera Black Stars beat Dandora Love 5-2 in Super League on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Camp Toyoyo in Nairobi.