KI Klaksvik 2–3 HB Torshavn: Result & Stats

KI Klaksvik

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

HB Torshavn

4/24/2024

Løgmanssteypid · Round of 16Við Djúpumýrar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

KI Klaksvik45%

×Draw22%

HB Torshavn33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KI KlaksvikExpected goals in this matchHB Torshavn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.61

KI Klaksvik

1.89

HB Torshavn

1.61

KI Klaksvik creates 17% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

2.60

creates per match

2.33

0.90

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

KI Klaksvik

2.60

HB Torshavn

2.33

allows per match

KI Klaksvik

0.90

HB Torshavn

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KI Klaksvik+0.00on par

HB Torshavn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KI Klaksvik ↓

HB Torshavn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

KI Klaksvik or draw

67%

KI Klaksvik or HB Torshavn

78%

Draw or HB Torshavn

55%

Winning margin

KI Klaksvik wins by 2+

24%

HB Torshavn wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

KI Klaksvik 1+ goals

85%

KI Klaksvik 2+ goals

56%

KI Klaksvik 3+ goals

29%

HB Torshavn 1+ goals

80%

HB Torshavn 2+ goals

48%

HB Torshavn 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

KI Klaksvik (draw refunded)

57%

HB Torshavn (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KI Klaksvik at home — creates 2.60, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

HB Torshavn away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KI Klaksvik attack 2.60 + HB Torshavn defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.89

HB Torshavn attack 2.33 + KI Klaksvik defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

KI Klaksvik scores more

45%

level

22%

HB Torshavn scores more

33%

KI Klaksvik at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KI Klaksvik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff