Khust City 1–7 Dinaz Vyshhorod: Result & Stats

Khust City

FT

1 – 7

HT: 0 – 3

Dinaz Vyshhorod

5/25/2024

Persha Liga · Relegation Round - 10Stadion Karpaty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Khust City42%

×Draw24%

Dinaz Vyshhorod34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khust CityExpected goals in this matchDinaz Vyshhorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.40

Khust City

1.59

Dinaz Vyshhorod

1.40

Khust City creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 37 away

1.29

creates per match

0.97

1.82

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Khust City

1.29

Dinaz Vyshhorod

0.97

allows per match

Khust City

1.82

Dinaz Vyshhorod

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khust City+0.00on par

Dinaz Vyshhorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khust City ↓

Dinaz Vyshhorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Khust City or draw

66%

Khust City or Dinaz Vyshhorod

76%

Draw or Dinaz Vyshhorod

58%

Winning margin

Khust City wins by 2+

21%

Dinaz Vyshhorod wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Khust City 1+ goals

80%

Khust City 2+ goals

47%

Khust City 3+ goals

21%

Dinaz Vyshhorod 1+ goals

75%

Dinaz Vyshhorod 2+ goals

41%

Dinaz Vyshhorod 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Khust City (draw refunded)

55%

Dinaz Vyshhorod (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khust City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

Dinaz Vyshhorod away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khust City attack 1.29 + Dinaz Vyshhorod defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.59

Dinaz Vyshhorod attack 0.97 + Khust City defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Khust City scores more

42%

level

24%

Dinaz Vyshhorod scores more

34%

Khust City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Khust City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff