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Dinaz Vyshhorod vs Khust City — Persha Liga 2019

Dinaz Vyshhorod
Dinaz Vyshhorod
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khust City
Khust City
4/20/2024Persha LigaPersha Liga · Relegation Round - 5Stadion Dinaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dinaz Vyshhorod42%
×Draw26%
Khust City32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.44
Khust City
1.23

Dinaz Vyshhorod creates 17% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 18 away

creates per match

Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.00
Khust City
1.06

allows per match

Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.41
Khust City
1.89

finishing

Dinaz Vyshhorod+0.00on par
Khust City+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinaz Vyshhorod ↓

Khust City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dinaz Vyshhorod or draw
68%
Dinaz Vyshhorod or Khust City
74%
Draw or Khust City
58%

Winning margin

Dinaz Vyshhorod wins by 2+
20%
Khust City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dinaz Vyshhorod 1+ goals
76%
Dinaz Vyshhorod 2+ goals
42%
Dinaz Vyshhorod 3+ goals
18%
Khust City 1+ goals
71%
Khust City 2+ goals
35%
Khust City 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dinaz Vyshhorod (draw refunded)
57%
Khust City (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinaz Vyshhorod at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

Khust City away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinaz Vyshhorod attack 1.00 + Khust City defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.44

Khust City attack 1.06 + Dinaz Vyshhorod defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dinaz Vyshhorod scores more
42%
level
26%
Khust City scores more
32%

Dinaz Vyshhorod at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinaz Vyshhorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Dinaz Vyshhorod 1–0 Khust City

Dinaz Vyshhorod beat Khust City 1-0 in Persha Liga on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dinaz in Demydiv.