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Khujand vs Khosilot Farkhor — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Khujand
Khujand
Preview
12:00
Khosilot Farkhor
Khosilot Farkhor
10/16/2026Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 19
Big match
50%
Khujand
model favours
50%25%25%
1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Khujand50%
×Draw25%
Khosilot Farkhor25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khujand
1.63
Khosilot Farkhor
1.07

Khujand creates 52% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 36 away

creates per match

Khujand
1.59
Khosilot Farkhor
1.19

allows per match

Khujand
0.96
Khosilot Farkhor
1.67

finishing

Khujand+0.00on par
Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khujand ↓

Khosilot Farkhor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Khujand or draw
75%
Khujand or Khosilot Farkhor
75%
Draw or Khosilot Farkhor
50%

Winning margin

Khujand wins by 2+
27%
Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Khujand 1+ goals
80%
Khujand 2+ goals
48%
Khujand 3+ goals
22%
Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals
66%
Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals
29%
Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Khujand (draw refunded)
67%
Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khujand at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

Khosilot Farkhor away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.67 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khujand attack 1.59 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.63

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.19 + Khujand defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Khujand scores more
50%
level
25%
Khosilot Farkhor scores more
25%

Khujand at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Khujand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Khujand
WLDWL
Farkhor
WWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Khujand face Khosilot Farkhor (Vysshaya Liga)

Vysshaya Liga returns with Khujand hosting Khosilot Farkhor. Match starts October 16, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.