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Khujand vs Khosilot Farkhor — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Khujand
Khujand
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Khosilot Farkhor
Khosilot Farkhor
A. Serdyuk 80'
U. Sharipov 62'
S. Boboev 45+4'
N. Khamrokulov 21'
4/12/2024Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 2Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Khujand47%
×Draw25%
Khosilot Farkhor28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khujand
1.57
Khosilot Farkhor
1.15

Khujand creates 37% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 27 away

creates per match

Khujand
1.63
Khosilot Farkhor
1.44

allows per match

Khujand
0.86
Khosilot Farkhor
1.52

finishing

Khujand+0.00on par
Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khujand ↓

Khosilot Farkhor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Khujand or draw
72%
Khujand or Khosilot Farkhor
75%
Draw or Khosilot Farkhor
53%

Winning margin

Khujand wins by 2+
24%
Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Khujand 1+ goals
79%
Khujand 2+ goals
46%
Khujand 3+ goals
21%
Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals
68%
Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals
32%
Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Khujand (draw refunded)
63%
Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khujand at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.86 · 35 matches

Khosilot Farkhor away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khujand attack 1.63 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.57

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.44 + Khujand defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Khujand scores more
47%
level
25%
Khosilot Farkhor scores more
28%

Khujand at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Khujand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
N. Khamrokulov
45+4'
S. Boboev
62'
U. Sharipov
80'
A. Serdyuk

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Khujand 1–3 Khosilot Farkhor

Khosilot Farkhor beat Khujand 3-1 in Vysshaya Liga on April 12, 2024.

Goals: N. Khamrokulov (21'), S. Boboev (45+4'), U. Sharipov (62'), A. Serdyuk (80').

The match was played at Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti in Khujand.