Khosilot Farkhor 3–1 Khujand: Result & Stats

Khosilot Farkhor

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Khujand

R. Ngombe 48', 19'

J. Akomadi 25'

F. Karaev 89' (pen)

5/9/2025

Vysshaya Liga · Round 8Stadion Farkhar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Khosilot Farkhor36%

×Draw26%

Khujand38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khosilot FarkhorExpected goals in this matchKhujand

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.38

Khosilot Farkhor

1.34

Khujand

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 34 away

1.59

creates per match

1.35

1.41

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Khosilot Farkhor

1.59

Khujand

1.35

allows per match

Khosilot Farkhor

1.41

Khujand

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par

Khujand+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khosilot Farkhor ↓

Khujand →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Khosilot Farkhor or draw

62%

Khosilot Farkhor or Khujand

74%

Draw or Khujand

64%

Winning margin

Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+

16%

Khujand wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals

74%

Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals

39%

Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals

15%

Khujand 1+ goals

75%

Khujand 2+ goals

40%

Khujand 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)

49%

Khujand (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khosilot Farkhor at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

Khujand away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.59 + Khujand defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.34

Khujand attack 1.35 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Khosilot Farkhor scores more

36%

level

26%

Khujand scores more

38%

Khujand at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Khujand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

R. Ngombe

25'

J. Akomadi

48'

R. Ngombe

89'

F. KaraevPenalty

Khosilot

Khujand

Manager: M. Khabibulloev

Manager: F. Marofiev