Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Khovd vs Falcons — Premier League 2020

Khovd
Khovd
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Falcons
Falcons
9/25/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Khovd22%
×Draw17%
Falcons61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khovd
1.75
Falcons
2.92

Falcons creates 67% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 72 away

creates per match

Khovd
2.41
Falcons
3.08

allows per match

Khovd
2.76
Falcons
1.08

finishing

Khovd+0.00on par
Falcons+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khovd ↓

Falcons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Khovd or draw
39%
Khovd or Falcons
83%
Draw or Falcons
78%

Winning margin

Khovd wins by 2+
10%
Falcons wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Khovd 1+ goals
83%
Khovd 2+ goals
52%
Khovd 3+ goals
25%
Falcons 1+ goals
94%
Falcons 2+ goals
78%
Falcons 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Khovd (draw refunded)
27%
Falcons (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khovd at home — creates 2.41, concedes 2.76 · 63 matches

Falcons away — creates 3.08, concedes 1.08 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khovd attack 2.41 + Falcons defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.75

Falcons attack 3.08 + Khovd defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Khovd scores more
22%
level
17%
Falcons scores more
61%

Falcons at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Falcons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Khovd 0 – 1 Falcons

Falcons beat Khovd 1-0 in Premier League on September 25, 2024.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.