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Falcons vs Khovd — Premier League 2020

Falcons
Falcons
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Khovd
Khovd
5/16/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Falcons67%
×Draw16%
Khovd17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falcons
2.94
Khovd
1.44

Falcons creates 104% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 56 away

creates per match

Falcons
2.74
Khovd
1.88

allows per match

Falcons
1.00
Khovd
3.13

finishing

Falcons+0.00on par
Khovd+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falcons ↓

Khovd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Falcons or draw
83%
Falcons or Khovd
84%
Draw or Khovd
33%

Winning margin

Falcons wins by 2+
47%
Khovd wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Falcons 1+ goals
95%
Falcons 2+ goals
79%
Falcons 3+ goals
55%
Khovd 1+ goals
76%
Khovd 2+ goals
42%
Khovd 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Falcons (draw refunded)
80%
Khovd (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falcons at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.00 · 68 matches

Khovd away — creates 1.88, concedes 3.13 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falcons attack 2.74 + Khovd defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.94

Khovd attack 1.88 + Falcons defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Falcons scores more
67%
level
16%
Khovd scores more
17%

Falcons at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Falcons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Falcons vs Khovd

Falcons beat Khovd 5-1 in Premier League on May 16, 2024.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.