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Khovd vs Erchim — Premier League 2020

Khovd
Khovd
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Erchim
Erchim
3/1/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Airdom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Khovd31%
×Draw18%
Erchim50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khovd
2.18
Erchim
2.75

Erchim creates 26% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 65 away

creates per match

Khovd
2.41
Erchim
2.74

allows per match

Khovd
2.76
Erchim
1.95

finishing

Khovd+0.00on par
Erchim+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khovd ↓

Erchim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Khovd or draw
50%
Khovd or Erchim
82%
Draw or Erchim
69%

Winning margin

Khovd wins by 2+
17%
Erchim wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Khovd 1+ goals
89%
Khovd 2+ goals
64%
Khovd 3+ goals
37%
Erchim 1+ goals
93%
Erchim 2+ goals
75%
Erchim 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Khovd (draw refunded)
38%
Erchim (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khovd at home — creates 2.41, concedes 2.76 · 63 matches

Erchim away — creates 2.74, concedes 1.95 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khovd attack 2.41 + Erchim defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.18

Erchim attack 2.74 + Khovd defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Khovd scores more
31%
level
18%
Erchim scores more
50%

Erchim at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Erchim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khovd vs Erchim

Erchim beat Khovd 5-2 in Premier League on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Airdom Stadium in Ulaanbaatar.