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Erchim vs Khovd — Premier League 2020

Erchim
Erchim
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Khovd
Khovd
6/11/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Erchim57%
×Draw18%
Khovd25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erchim
2.80
Khovd
1.83

Erchim creates 53% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 56 away

creates per match

Erchim
2.47
Khovd
1.88

allows per match

Erchim
1.78
Khovd
3.13

finishing

Erchim+0.00on par
Khovd+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erchim ↓

Khovd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Erchim or draw
75%
Erchim or Khovd
82%
Draw or Khovd
43%

Winning margin

Erchim wins by 2+
38%
Khovd wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Erchim 1+ goals
94%
Erchim 2+ goals
76%
Erchim 3+ goals
52%
Khovd 1+ goals
84%
Khovd 2+ goals
54%
Khovd 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Erchim (draw refunded)
70%
Khovd (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erchim at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.78 · 68 matches

Khovd away — creates 1.88, concedes 3.13 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erchim attack 2.47 + Khovd defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.80

Khovd attack 1.88 + Erchim defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Erchim scores more
57%
level
18%
Khovd scores more
25%

Erchim at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Erchim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erchim vs Khovd

Khovd beat Erchim 3-1 in Premier League on June 11, 2025.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulan Bator (Ulaanbaatar).