Khovd 1–3 Bayanzürkh Sporting: Result & Stats

Khovd

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Bayanzürkh Sporting

4/7/2024

Premier League · Round 14Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Khovd42%

×Draw19%

Bayanzürkh Sporting39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhovdExpected goals in this matchBayanzürkh Sporting

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

2.52

Khovd

2.60

Bayanzürkh Sporting

2.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 28 away

2.41

creates per match

2.29

2.76

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Khovd

2.41

Bayanzürkh Sporting

2.29

allows per match

Khovd

2.76

Bayanzürkh Sporting

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khovd+0.00on par

Bayanzürkh Sporting+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khovd ↓

Bayanzürkh Sporting →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–25%

1–34%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Khovd or draw

61%

Khovd or Bayanzürkh Sporting

81%

Draw or Bayanzürkh Sporting

58%

Winning margin

Khovd wins by 2+

25%

Bayanzürkh Sporting wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Khovd 1+ goals

92%

Khovd 2+ goals

73%

Khovd 3+ goals

47%

Bayanzürkh Sporting 1+ goals

92%

Bayanzürkh Sporting 2+ goals

71%

Bayanzürkh Sporting 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Khovd (draw refunded)

52%

Bayanzürkh Sporting (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

81%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khovd at home — creates 2.41, concedes 2.76 · 63 matches

Bayanzürkh Sporting away — creates 2.29, concedes 2.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khovd attack 2.41 + Bayanzürkh Sporting defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.60

Bayanzürkh Sporting attack 2.29 + Khovd defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Khovd scores more

42%

level

19%

Bayanzürkh Sporting scores more

39%

Khovd at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Khovd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff