Bayanzürkh Sporting 1–2 Khovd: Result & Stats

Bayanzürkh Sporting

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Khovd

5/25/2024

Premier League · Round 23Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bayanzürkh Sporting34%

×Draw19%

Khovd47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayanzürkh SportingExpected goals in this matchKhovd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

2.50

Bayanzürkh Sporting

2.14

Khovd

2.50

Khovd creates 17% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 56 away

1.15

creates per match

1.88

3.12

allows per match

3.13

creates per match

Bayanzürkh Sporting

1.15

Khovd

1.88

allows per match

Bayanzürkh Sporting

3.12

Khovd

3.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayanzürkh Sporting+0.00on par

Khovd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayanzürkh Sporting ↓

Khovd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Bayanzürkh Sporting or draw

53%

Bayanzürkh Sporting or Khovd

81%

Draw or Khovd

66%

Winning margin

Bayanzürkh Sporting wins by 2+

18%

Khovd wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Bayanzürkh Sporting 1+ goals

88%

Bayanzürkh Sporting 2+ goals

63%

Bayanzürkh Sporting 3+ goals

36%

Khovd 1+ goals

92%

Khovd 2+ goals

71%

Khovd 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Bayanzürkh Sporting (draw refunded)

42%

Khovd (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayanzürkh Sporting at home — creates 1.15, concedes 3.12 · 26 matches

Khovd away — creates 1.88, concedes 3.13 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayanzürkh Sporting attack 1.15 + Khovd defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.14

Khovd attack 1.88 + Bayanzürkh Sporting defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bayanzürkh Sporting scores more

34%

level

19%

Khovd scores more

47%

Khovd at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Khovd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff