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Khovd vs Athletic 220 — Premier League 2020

Khovd
Khovd
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Athletic 220
Athletic 220
A. Amaardjargal 90'
P. Purevsukh 82'
T. Sugasawa 63', 57'
7/3/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Khovd30%
×Draw20%
Athletic 22051%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khovd
1.85
Athletic 220
2.43

Athletic 220 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 27 away

creates per match

Khovd
2.41
Athletic 220
2.11

allows per match

Khovd
2.76
Athletic 220
1.30

finishing

Khovd+0.00on par
Athletic 220+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khovd ↓

Athletic 220 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Khovd or draw
49%
Khovd or Athletic 220
80%
Draw or Athletic 220
70%

Winning margin

Khovd wins by 2+
15%
Athletic 220 wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Khovd 1+ goals
84%
Khovd 2+ goals
55%
Khovd 3+ goals
28%
Athletic 220 1+ goals
91%
Athletic 220 2+ goals
69%
Athletic 220 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Khovd (draw refunded)
37%
Athletic 220 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khovd at home — creates 2.41, concedes 2.76 · 63 matches

Athletic 220 away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khovd attack 2.41 + Athletic 220 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.85

Athletic 220 attack 2.11 + Khovd defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Khovd scores more
30%
level
20%
Athletic 220 scores more
51%

Athletic 220 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Athletic 220 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
T. Sugasawa
63'
T. Sugasawa
82'
P. Purevsukh
90'
A. Amaardjargal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khovd vs Athletic 220

Khovd beat Athletic 220 4-0 in Premier League on July 3, 2022.

Goals: T. Sugasawa (57', 63'), P. Purevsukh (82'), A. Amaardjargal (90').

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.