Athletic 220 0–4 Khovd: Result & Stats

Athletic 220

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Khovd

5/11/2022

Premier League · Round 9Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Athletic 22062%

×Draw18%

Khovd20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic 220Expected goals in this matchKhovd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.66

1.48

Athletic 220

2.66

Khovd

1.48

Athletic 220 creates 80% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 56 away

2.19

creates per match

1.88

1.07

allows per match

3.13

creates per match

Athletic 220

2.19

Khovd

1.88

allows per match

Athletic 220

1.07

Khovd

3.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athletic 220+0.00on par

Khovd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic 220 ↓

Khovd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Athletic 220 or draw

80%

Athletic 220 or Khovd

82%

Draw or Khovd

38%

Winning margin

Athletic 220 wins by 2+

41%

Khovd wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Athletic 220 1+ goals

93%

Athletic 220 2+ goals

74%

Athletic 220 3+ goals

49%

Khovd 1+ goals

77%

Khovd 2+ goals

43%

Khovd 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Athletic 220 (draw refunded)

76%

Khovd (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic 220 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

Khovd away — creates 1.88, concedes 3.13 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic 220 attack 2.19 + Khovd defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.66

Khovd attack 1.88 + Athletic 220 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Athletic 220 scores more

62%

level

18%

Khovd scores more

20%

Athletic 220 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Athletic 220 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff