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Khooshe Talaee Saveh vs Chooka Talesh — Azadegan League 2018

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
FT
2 – 1
Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
1/25/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 11Shahid Chamran Saveh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh55%
×Draw27%
Chooka Talesh18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.46
Chooka Talesh
0.72

Khooshe Talaee Saveh creates 103% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 33 away

creates per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.20
Chooka Talesh
0.61

allows per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.83
Chooka Talesh
1.73

finishing

Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par
Chooka Talesh+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooshe Talaee Saveh ↓

Chooka Talesh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Khooshe Talaee Saveh or draw
82%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh or Chooka Talesh
73%
Draw or Chooka Talesh
45%

Winning margin

Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
28%
Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
77%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
43%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
18%
Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
51%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
16%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
75%
Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.83 · 83 matches

Chooka Talesh away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 1.20 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Chooka Talesh attack 0.61 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
55%
level
27%
Chooka Talesh scores more
18%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Khooshe Talaee Saveh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2–1 Chooka Talesh

Khooshe Talaee Saveh beat Chooka Talesh 2-1 in Azadegan League on January 25, 2021.

The match was played at Shahid Chamran Saveh Stadium in Saveh.