Chooka Talesh 1–0 Khooshe Talaee Saveh

Chooka Talesh

FT

1 – 0

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

6/8/2021

Azadegan League · Round 28Sardar Jangal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chooka Talesh39%

×Draw29%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chooka TaleshExpected goals in this matchKhooshe Talaee Saveh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.02

Chooka Talesh

1.15

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

1.02

Chooka Talesh creates 13% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 83 away

1.15

creates per match

0.77

1.27

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Chooka Talesh

1.15

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

0.77

allows per match

Chooka Talesh

1.27

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chooka Talesh+0.00on par

Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chooka Talesh ↓

Khooshe Talaee Saveh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Chooka Talesh or draw

68%

Chooka Talesh or Khooshe Talaee Saveh

71%

Draw or Khooshe Talaee Saveh

61%

Winning margin

Chooka Talesh wins by 2+

16%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chooka Talesh 1+ goals

68%

Chooka Talesh 2+ goals

32%

Chooka Talesh 3+ goals

11%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals

64%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals

27%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)

55%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chooka Talesh at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.16 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chooka Talesh attack 1.15 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 0.77 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chooka Talesh scores more

39%

level

29%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more

32%

Chooka Talesh at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chooka Talesh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff