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Khooshe Talaee Saveh vs Aluminium Arak — Azadegan League 2018

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
FT
0 – 0
Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
9/2/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 4Shahid Chamran Saveh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh34%
×Draw35%
Aluminium Arak31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.86
Aluminium Arak
0.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 19 away

creates per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.20
Aluminium Arak
0.79

allows per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.80
Aluminium Arak
0.53

finishing

Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par
Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooshe Talaee Saveh ↓

Aluminium Arak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Khooshe Talaee Saveh or draw
69%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh or Aluminium Arak
65%
Draw or Aluminium Arak
66%

Winning margin

Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
12%
Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
58%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
21%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
6%
Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
55%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
19%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
53%
Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 82 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 1.20 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.86

Aluminium Arak attack 0.79 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
34%
level
35%
Aluminium Arak scores more
31%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Khooshe Talaee Saveh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Khooshe Talaee Saveh 0–0 Aluminium Arak

Khooshe Talaee Saveh and Aluminium Arak drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on September 2, 2019.

The match was played at Shahid Chamran Saveh Stadium in Saveh.