Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aluminium Arak vs Khooshe Talaee Saveh — Azadegan League 2018

Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
FT
2 – 1
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
H. Pakdel 84'
M. Majidi 41' (pen)
M. Ghanbani 78'
1/26/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 21Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Aluminium Arak46%
×Draw31%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aluminium Arak
1.15
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.70

Aluminium Arak creates 64% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 82 away

creates per match

Aluminium Arak
1.13
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.77

allows per match

Aluminium Arak
0.63
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.17

finishing

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par
Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminium Arak ↓

Khooshe Talaee Saveh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Aluminium Arak or draw
78%
Aluminium Arak or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
69%
Draw or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
54%

Winning margin

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
20%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
68%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
32%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
11%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
50%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
16%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
67%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminium Arak at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.17 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminium Arak attack 1.13 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 0.77 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Aluminium Arak scores more
46%
level
31%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
22%

Aluminium Arak at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
M. MajidiPenalty
78'
M. Ghanbani
84'
H. Pakdel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Aluminium Arak 2–1 Khooshe Talaee Saveh

Aluminium Arak beat Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2-1 in Azadegan League on January 26, 2020.

Goals: M. Majidi (41' pen), M. Ghanbani (78'), H. Pakdel (84').

The match was played at Imam Khomeini Stadium in Arak.