Khooneh Be Khooneh 1–1 Gol Gohar: Result & Stats

Khooneh Be Khooneh

FT

1 – 1

Gol Gohar

1/31/2019

Azadegan League · Round 21Shohada Stadium (Babol)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Khooneh Be Khooneh32%

×Draw30%

Gol Gohar38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khooneh Be KhoonehExpected goals in this matchGol Gohar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.11

Khooneh Be Khooneh

1.00

Gol Gohar

1.11

Gol Gohar creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

1.50

0.73

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh

1.00

Gol Gohar

1.50

allows per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh

0.73

Gol Gohar

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khooneh Be Khooneh+0.00on par

Gol Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooneh Be Khooneh ↓

Gol Gohar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Khooneh Be Khooneh or draw

62%

Khooneh Be Khooneh or Gol Gohar

70%

Draw or Gol Gohar

68%

Winning margin

Khooneh Be Khooneh wins by 2+

12%

Gol Gohar wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Khooneh Be Khooneh 1+ goals

63%

Khooneh Be Khooneh 2+ goals

26%

Khooneh Be Khooneh 3+ goals

8%

Gol Gohar 1+ goals

67%

Gol Gohar 2+ goals

30%

Gol Gohar 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Khooneh Be Khooneh (draw refunded)

46%

Gol Gohar (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooneh Be Khooneh at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Gol Gohar away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooneh Be Khooneh attack 1.00 + Gol Gohar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Gol Gohar attack 1.50 + Khooneh Be Khooneh defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Khooneh Be Khooneh scores more

32%

level

30%

Gol Gohar scores more

38%

Gol Gohar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff