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Gol Gohar vs Khooneh Be Khooneh — Azadegan League 2018

Gol Gohar
Gol Gohar
FT
3 – 2
Khooneh Be Khooneh
Khooneh Be Khooneh
9/7/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 4Gol Gohar Sport Complex (Sirjan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gol Gohar73%
×Draw16%
Khooneh Be Khooneh10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gol Gohar
2.50
Khooneh Be Khooneh
0.83

Gol Gohar creates 201% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Gol Gohar
2.67
Khooneh Be Khooneh
0.67

allows per match

Gol Gohar
1.00
Khooneh Be Khooneh
2.33

finishing

Gol Gohar+0.00on par
Khooneh Be Khooneh+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gol Gohar ↓

Khooneh Be Khooneh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gol Gohar or draw
90%
Gol Gohar or Khooneh Be Khooneh
84%
Draw or Khooneh Be Khooneh
27%

Winning margin

Gol Gohar wins by 2+
51%
Khooneh Be Khooneh wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Gol Gohar 1+ goals
92%
Gol Gohar 2+ goals
71%
Gol Gohar 3+ goals
45%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 1+ goals
56%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 2+ goals
20%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gol Gohar (draw refunded)
87%
Khooneh Be Khooneh (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gol Gohar at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Khooneh Be Khooneh away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gol Gohar attack 2.67 + Khooneh Be Khooneh defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.50

Khooneh Be Khooneh attack 0.67 + Gol Gohar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Gol Gohar scores more
73%
level
16%
Khooneh Be Khooneh scores more
10%

Gol Gohar at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gol Gohar vs Khooneh Be Khooneh

Gol Gohar beat Khooneh Be Khooneh 3-2 in Azadegan League on September 7, 2018.

The match was played at Gol Gohar Sport Complex (Sirjan).