Khooneh Be Khooneh 0–0 Fajr Sepasi: Result & Stats

Khooneh Be Khooneh

FT

0 – 0

Fajr Sepasi

8/25/2018

Azadegan League · Round 3Shohada Sari Stadium (Sari)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Khooneh Be Khooneh35%

×Draw33%

Fajr Sepasi32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khooneh Be KhoonehExpected goals in this matchFajr Sepasi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

0.88

Khooneh Be Khooneh

0.93

Fajr Sepasi

0.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 98 away

1.00

creates per match

1.03

0.73

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh

1.00

Fajr Sepasi

1.03

allows per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh

0.73

Fajr Sepasi

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khooneh Be Khooneh+0.00on par

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooneh Be Khooneh ↓

Fajr Sepasi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Khooneh Be Khooneh or draw

68%

Khooneh Be Khooneh or Fajr Sepasi

67%

Draw or Fajr Sepasi

65%

Winning margin

Khooneh Be Khooneh wins by 2+

13%

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Khooneh Be Khooneh 1+ goals

61%

Khooneh Be Khooneh 2+ goals

24%

Khooneh Be Khooneh 3+ goals

7%

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals

59%

Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals

22%

Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Khooneh Be Khooneh (draw refunded)

52%

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooneh Be Khooneh at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooneh Be Khooneh attack 1.00 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.03 + Khooneh Be Khooneh defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Khooneh Be Khooneh scores more

35%

level

33%

Fajr Sepasi scores more

32%

Khooneh Be Khooneh at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Khooneh Be Khooneh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff