Fajr Sepasi 2–0 Khooneh Be Khooneh: Result & Stats

Fajr Sepasi

FT

2 – 0

Khooneh Be Khooneh

1/24/2019

Azadegan League · Round 20Shahid Dastgheib Stadium (Shīrāz (Shiraz))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Fajr Sepasi58%

×Draw29%

Khooneh Be Khooneh13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fajr SepasiExpected goals in this matchKhooneh Be Khooneh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.46

Fajr Sepasi

1.32

Khooneh Be Khooneh

0.46

Fajr Sepasi creates 187% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 16 away

1.40

creates per match

0.44

0.49

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi

1.40

Khooneh Be Khooneh

0.44

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi

0.49

Khooneh Be Khooneh

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Khooneh Be Khooneh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No73
Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Khooneh Be Khooneh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw

87%

Fajr Sepasi or Khooneh Be Khooneh

71%

Draw or Khooneh Be Khooneh

42%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+

29%

Khooneh Be Khooneh wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals

73%

Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals

38%

Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals

15%

Khooneh Be Khooneh 1+ goals

37%

Khooneh Be Khooneh 2+ goals

8%

Khooneh Be Khooneh 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)

82%

Khooneh Be Khooneh (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.49 · 99 matches

Khooneh Be Khooneh away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.40 + Khooneh Be Khooneh defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Khooneh Be Khooneh attack 0.44 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more

58%

level

29%

Khooneh Be Khooneh scores more

13%

Fajr Sepasi at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff