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Khooneh Be Khooneh vs Baderan Tehran — Azadegan League 2018

Khooneh Be Khooneh
Khooneh Be Khooneh
FT
3 – 2
Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
10/10/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 7Shohada Stadium (Babol)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Khooneh Be Khooneh37%
×Draw31%
Baderan Tehran33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khooneh Be Khooneh
1.05
Baderan Tehran
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 51 away

creates per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh
1.00
Baderan Tehran
1.22

allows per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh
0.73
Baderan Tehran
1.10

finishing

Khooneh Be Khooneh+0.00on par
Baderan Tehran+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooneh Be Khooneh ↓

Baderan Tehran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Khooneh Be Khooneh or draw
67%
Khooneh Be Khooneh or Baderan Tehran
69%
Draw or Baderan Tehran
63%

Winning margin

Khooneh Be Khooneh wins by 2+
14%
Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Khooneh Be Khooneh 1+ goals
65%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 2+ goals
28%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 3+ goals
9%
Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
62%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
25%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Khooneh Be Khooneh (draw refunded)
53%
Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooneh Be Khooneh at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Baderan Tehran away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooneh Be Khooneh attack 1.00 + Baderan Tehran defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Baderan Tehran attack 1.22 + Khooneh Be Khooneh defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Khooneh Be Khooneh scores more
37%
level
31%
Baderan Tehran scores more
33%

Khooneh Be Khooneh at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Khooneh Be Khooneh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khooneh Be Khooneh vs Baderan Tehran

Khooneh Be Khooneh beat Baderan Tehran 3-2 in Azadegan League on October 10, 2018.

The match was played at Shohada Stadium (Babol).