Baderan Tehran 2–1 Khooneh Be Khooneh

Baderan Tehran

FT

2 – 1

Khooneh Be Khooneh

2/19/2019

Azadegan League · Round 24Naft Tehransar (Tehran)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Baderan Tehran51%

×Draw30%

Khooneh Be Khooneh19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baderan TehranExpected goals in this matchKhooneh Be Khooneh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.66

Baderan Tehran

1.26

Khooneh Be Khooneh

0.66

Baderan Tehran creates 91% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 16 away

1.27

creates per match

0.44

0.88

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Baderan Tehran

1.27

Khooneh Be Khooneh

0.44

allows per match

Baderan Tehran

0.88

Khooneh Be Khooneh

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par

Khooneh Be Khooneh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

Khooneh Be Khooneh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw

81%

Baderan Tehran or Khooneh Be Khooneh

70%

Draw or Khooneh Be Khooneh

49%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+

24%

Khooneh Be Khooneh wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals

72%

Baderan Tehran 2+ goals

36%

Baderan Tehran 3+ goals

13%

Khooneh Be Khooneh 1+ goals

48%

Khooneh Be Khooneh 2+ goals

14%

Khooneh Be Khooneh 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)

72%

Khooneh Be Khooneh (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Khooneh Be Khooneh away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.27 + Khooneh Be Khooneh defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.26

Khooneh Be Khooneh attack 0.44 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more

51%

level

30%

Khooneh Be Khooneh scores more

19%

Baderan Tehran at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff