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Khooneh Be Khooneh vs Arvand Khorramshahr FC — Azadegan League 2018

Khooneh Be Khooneh
Khooneh Be Khooneh
FT
3 – 0
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
4/30/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 34Shohada Stadium (Babol)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Khooneh Be Khooneh51%
×Draw28%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khooneh Be Khooneh
1.33
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.73

Khooneh Be Khooneh creates 82% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh
1.00
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.73

allows per match

Khooneh Be Khooneh
0.73
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
1.67

finishing

Khooneh Be Khooneh+0.00on par
Arvand Khorramshahr FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooneh Be Khooneh ↓

Arvand Khorramshahr FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Khooneh Be Khooneh or draw
79%
Khooneh Be Khooneh or Arvand Khorramshahr FC
72%
Draw or Arvand Khorramshahr FC
49%

Winning margin

Khooneh Be Khooneh wins by 2+
24%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Khooneh Be Khooneh 1+ goals
74%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 2+ goals
38%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 3+ goals
15%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1+ goals
52%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 2+ goals
17%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Khooneh Be Khooneh (draw refunded)
71%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooneh Be Khooneh at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Arvand Khorramshahr FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooneh Be Khooneh attack 1.00 + Arvand Khorramshahr FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Arvand Khorramshahr FC attack 0.73 + Khooneh Be Khooneh defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Khooneh Be Khooneh scores more
51%
level
28%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC scores more
21%

Khooneh Be Khooneh at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Khooneh Be Khooneh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Khooneh Be Khooneh 3–0 Arvand Khorramshahr FC

Khooneh Be Khooneh beat Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3-0 in Azadegan League on April 30, 2019.

The match was played at Shohada Stadium (Babol).