Arvand Khorramshahr FC 0–1 Khooneh Be Khooneh

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

FT

0 – 1

Khooneh Be Khooneh

12/15/2018

Azadegan League · Round 17Khorramshahr Stadium (Khorramshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Arvand Khorramshahr FC42%

×Draw36%

Khooneh Be Khooneh22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arvand Khorramshahr FCExpected goals in this matchKhooneh Be Khooneh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

0.56

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

0.91

Khooneh Be Khooneh

0.56

Arvand Khorramshahr FC creates 63% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

0.56

creates per match

0.44

0.69

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

0.56

Khooneh Be Khooneh

0.44

allows per match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

0.69

Khooneh Be Khooneh

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arvand Khorramshahr FC+0.00on par

Khooneh Be Khooneh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under82
Over18

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arvand Khorramshahr FC ↓

Khooneh Be Khooneh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–023%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

77%23%1.5

43%57%2.5

18%82%3.5

6%94%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Arvand Khorramshahr FC or draw

78%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC or Khooneh Be Khooneh

64%

Draw or Khooneh Be Khooneh

58%

Winning margin

Arvand Khorramshahr FC wins by 2+

15%

Khooneh Be Khooneh wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1+ goals

60%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 2+ goals

23%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3+ goals

6%

Khooneh Be Khooneh 1+ goals

43%

Khooneh Be Khooneh 2+ goals

11%

Khooneh Be Khooneh 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Arvand Khorramshahr FC (draw refunded)

66%

Khooneh Be Khooneh (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arvand Khorramshahr FC at home — creates 0.56, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

Khooneh Be Khooneh away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC attack 0.56 + Khooneh Be Khooneh defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.91

Khooneh Be Khooneh attack 0.44 + Arvand Khorramshahr FC defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Arvand Khorramshahr FC scores more

42%

level

36%

Khooneh Be Khooneh scores more

22%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arvand Khorramshahr FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff