Khonkaen 0–1 Sukhothai FC: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Khonkaen

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sukhothai FC

4/9/2025

FA Cup · Round of 16Khon Kaen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Khonkaen59%

×Draw22%

Sukhothai FC18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhonkaenExpected goals in this matchSukhothai FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.94

Khonkaen

1.88

Sukhothai FC

0.94

Khonkaen creates 100% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

2.50

creates per match

0.75

1.13

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Khonkaen

2.50

Sukhothai FC

0.75

allows per match

Khonkaen

1.13

Sukhothai FC

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khonkaen+0.00on par

Sukhothai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khonkaen ↓

Sukhothai FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Khonkaen or draw

82%

Khonkaen or Sukhothai FC

78%

Draw or Sukhothai FC

41%

Winning margin

Khonkaen wins by 2+

35%

Sukhothai FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Khonkaen 1+ goals

85%

Khonkaen 2+ goals

56%

Khonkaen 3+ goals

29%

Sukhothai FC 1+ goals

61%

Sukhothai FC 2+ goals

24%

Sukhothai FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Khonkaen (draw refunded)

76%

Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khonkaen at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Sukhothai FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khonkaen attack 2.50 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Sukhothai FC attack 0.75 + Khonkaen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Khonkaen scores more

59%

level

22%

Sukhothai FC scores more

18%

Khonkaen at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Khonkaen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff