Khonkaen 1–2 Sukhothai FC: Result & Stats

Khonkaen

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sukhothai FC

1/9/2022

Thai League 2 · Round 18Khon Kaen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Khonkaen38%

×Draw25%

Sukhothai FC38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhonkaenExpected goals in this matchSukhothai FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

Khonkaen

1.46

Sukhothai FC

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 17 away

1.45

creates per match

1.82

1.09

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Khonkaen

1.45

Sukhothai FC

1.82

allows per match

Khonkaen

1.09

Sukhothai FC

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khonkaen+0.00on par

Sukhothai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khonkaen ↓

Sukhothai FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Khonkaen or draw

62%

Khonkaen or Sukhothai FC

75%

Draw or Sukhothai FC

62%

Winning margin

Khonkaen wins by 2+

18%

Sukhothai FC wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Khonkaen 1+ goals

77%

Khonkaen 2+ goals

43%

Khonkaen 3+ goals

18%

Sukhothai FC 1+ goals

77%

Sukhothai FC 2+ goals

43%

Sukhothai FC 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Khonkaen (draw refunded)

50%

Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khonkaen at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Sukhothai FC away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khonkaen attack 1.45 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sukhothai FC attack 1.82 + Khonkaen defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Khonkaen scores more

38%

level

25%

Sukhothai FC scores more

38%

Khonkaen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Khonkaen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff