Khonkaen 3–3 Khon Kaen United: Result & Stats

Khonkaen

FT

3 – 3

Khon Kaen United

10/3/2020

Thai League 2 · Round 9Khon Kaen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Khonkaen44%

×Draw25%

Khon Kaen United31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhonkaenExpected goals in this matchKhon Kaen United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.25

Khonkaen

1.52

Khon Kaen United

1.25

Khonkaen creates 22% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 35 away

1.45

creates per match

1.40

1.09

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Khonkaen

1.45

Khon Kaen United

1.40

allows per match

Khonkaen

1.09

Khon Kaen United

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khonkaen+0.00on par

Khon Kaen United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khonkaen ↓

Khon Kaen United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Khonkaen or draw

69%

Khonkaen or Khon Kaen United

75%

Draw or Khon Kaen United

56%

Winning margin

Khonkaen wins by 2+

22%

Khon Kaen United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Khonkaen 1+ goals

78%

Khonkaen 2+ goals

45%

Khonkaen 3+ goals

20%

Khon Kaen United 1+ goals

71%

Khon Kaen United 2+ goals

36%

Khon Kaen United 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Khonkaen (draw refunded)

58%

Khon Kaen United (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khonkaen at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Khon Kaen United away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khonkaen attack 1.45 + Khon Kaen United defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Khon Kaen United attack 1.40 + Khonkaen defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Khonkaen scores more

44%

level

25%

Khon Kaen United scores more

31%

Khonkaen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Khonkaen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff