Khon Kaen United 1–1 Khonkaen: Result & Stats

Khon Kaen United

FT

1 – 1

Khonkaen

2/27/2021

Thai League 2 · Round 25Khon Kaen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Khon Kaen United57%

×Draw23%

Khonkaen20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khon Kaen UnitedExpected goals in this matchKhonkaen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.01

Khon Kaen United

1.86

Khonkaen

1.01

Khon Kaen United creates 84% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 65 away

2.06

creates per match

1.02

1.00

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Khon Kaen United

2.06

Khonkaen

1.02

allows per match

Khon Kaen United

1.00

Khonkaen

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khon Kaen United+0.00on par

Khonkaen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khon Kaen United ↓

Khonkaen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Khon Kaen United or draw

80%

Khon Kaen United or Khonkaen

77%

Draw or Khonkaen

43%

Winning margin

Khon Kaen United wins by 2+

33%

Khonkaen wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Khon Kaen United 1+ goals

84%

Khon Kaen United 2+ goals

55%

Khon Kaen United 3+ goals

28%

Khonkaen 1+ goals

64%

Khonkaen 2+ goals

27%

Khonkaen 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Khon Kaen United (draw refunded)

74%

Khonkaen (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khon Kaen United at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.00 · 36 matches

Khonkaen away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khon Kaen United attack 2.06 + Khonkaen defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.86

Khonkaen attack 1.02 + Khon Kaen United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Khon Kaen United scores more

57%

level

23%

Khonkaen scores more

20%

Khon Kaen United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Khon Kaen United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff