Khonkaen 0–0 Chiangmai United: Result & Stats

Khonkaen

FT

0 – 0

Chiangmai United

2/29/2020

Thai League 2 · Round 4Khon Kaen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Khonkaen43%

×Draw26%

Chiangmai United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhonkaenExpected goals in this matchChiangmai United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.14

Khonkaen

1.42

Chiangmai United

1.14

Khonkaen creates 25% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 103 away

1.45

creates per match

1.19

1.09

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Khonkaen

1.45

Chiangmai United

1.19

allows per match

Khonkaen

1.09

Chiangmai United

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khonkaen+0.00on par

Chiangmai United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khonkaen ↓

Chiangmai United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Khonkaen or draw

70%

Khonkaen or Chiangmai United

74%

Draw or Chiangmai United

57%

Winning margin

Khonkaen wins by 2+

21%

Chiangmai United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Khonkaen 1+ goals

76%

Khonkaen 2+ goals

41%

Khonkaen 3+ goals

17%

Chiangmai United 1+ goals

68%

Chiangmai United 2+ goals

32%

Chiangmai United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Khonkaen (draw refunded)

59%

Chiangmai United (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khonkaen at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Chiangmai United away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.39 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khonkaen attack 1.45 + Chiangmai United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Chiangmai United attack 1.19 + Khonkaen defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Khonkaen scores more

43%

level

26%

Chiangmai United scores more

30%

Khonkaen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Khonkaen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff